Cool Weather Price Patterns

Power Lines

Demand for electricity is generally lower when the weather is cool than it is during the summer.  This means that compared with summer prices, fall and winter prices are generally lower, and the price pattern is more stable. During the summer, prices typically rise during the day, peak in the afternoon, and then decrease during the evening. In contrast, the winter price shape is generally flatter, with multiple small peaks during the day. This is because overall demand is not driven by air conditioning as it is during the summer.

Several changes occur with the shift to the winter pattern:

  • During the fall and winter, the highest prices of the day are generally lower than the highest prices during the summer.
  • Winter prices tend to increase in the morning during the hours when people are getting ready for the day and businesses are opening.
  • Prices will typically drop during the afternoon. 
  • The highest prices of the day tend to occur during the evening rather than earlier in the afternoon.

It is worth noting that market prices tend to increase somewhat in December and January, usually due to the holidays and the associated decorative lighting and retail business activity. Electricity prices can also spike when sudden and significant temperature drops or extended cold snaps push up natural gas prices, increasing the cost of operating gas-burning power plants. As always, you will receive a message in advance any time prices are expected to be above 13 cents per kWh. You can also view prices online.